Kenyan Diaspora: Ipsos polling survey is not scientific but a politically motivated misrepresentation of facts to favour Jubilee!

By Kenyan Diaspora

Dr Tom Wolf, CEO Ipsos

New York, United States-Kenyans in the diaspora who support Raila Amollo Odinga in the National Super Alliance (NASA) would like to make the following statement as pertains to the Ipsos Synovate’s polls survey released recently pitting President Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee and Raila Odinga of the NASA coalitions. 

Immediately after the announcement of the formation of the NASA political outfit, the super alliance opposition party to challenge the Jubilee government in the August 2017 election, the Ipsos polling firm released an opinion poll.   The finding of the poll was well presented with bar charts, pie charts and other forms of pseudo-descriptive statistical data. 

We have summarized their bar chart and simplified it in the table presented below for easy analysis and discussion. The findings of this poll have no merit, since there was no poll done. Forensic analysis clearly shows that all the data presented were cooked. 

The aim was to show that President Uhuru Kenyatta was ahead of the opposition leaders in popularity. For example, the poll reporters assumed that Nyanza province is a NASA stronghold; central province is a Jubilee stronghold; NASA zones are automatically Raila Odinga’s supporters; Jubilee zones are Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters; and for the last five years, both Jubilee and NASA had an equal chance to promote and implement their development agendas. 

These assumptions ignored the fact that Jubilee run the government and NASA did not; that nothing changed in terms of political grouping since the last election.

To compare NASA with Jubilee is not only absurd, but crazy. NASA has just formed and in the last 5 months it was still brewing in Mudavadi’s head yet Jubilee was busy running the government; NASA had no definitive leader, no members, and not even campaigned or told Kenyans its purpose, agenda, or presented its manifesto. 

But Dr. Wolf has already compared its development rating with that of Jubilee in terms of education, health care provision, and enhancing regional security for the last five years. Interestingly, they found that of the 2057 imaginary Kenyans interviewed by Ipsos, 2% approve of Jubilee’s performance in improving the health of Kenyans, while 0% approves of  NASA on this issue. 

Zero percent rating may mean that all NASA supporters disapproved NASA agenda or NASA was not inexistence by the time its development agenda was compared with that of Jubilee or nobody was interviewed at all and data was cooked. If the reported facts were true, then 98% of the Kenyans disapprove of the Jubilee’s ability to improve health care. With such a low approval rating for the Jubilee government, it is magical or miraculous that Uhuru Kenyatta’s rating is steadily rising. 

If a 2% approval rate for Jubilee in health care provision and management is a fact, then the doctors’ and nurses’ strikes that paralyzed the country was justified. According to any known standard, it will be a disaster for any government to have a 2% approval rating in health care. This is a typical example of the cooked poll data.

Summarized data from Ipsos polls bar chart (1)

Total number interviewed			N	J
	Jubilee	NASA	Nyanza	Central
N=2057	N=934	N=693	N=269	N=269
Leaning Towards	45.8%	34%
Improve Health care	2%	0%
Improve Education	4%	0%
Enhancing security	1%	1%
Undecided

Summarized data from Ipsos polls bar chart (2)

Undecided
Nyanza	Central	Eastern	Rift Valley
6%	6%	6%	6%

The table shows that 45.8% of Kenyans lean toward Jubilee party while 34% towards NASA. The poll further indicates that only 4% of Kenyans approve of Jubilee’s handling of education and 1%, its enhancing of security, against NASA’s 0% and 1% respectively. This rating is too low for the Jubilee government and there is no way that 45.8% of Kenyans would still lean toward such a low-rated government. 

If this finding were true, what would be wrong with those leaning towards Jubilee in spite of the government’s extremely low rating in health, education and enhancing security? Unless there has been massive brain transplants during which their brains got totally changed. NASA had just been formed and is in the primordial stages, but Ipsos rates it at 1% - equal with Jubilee in handling security. 

Therefore, according to this poll, 99% of Kenyans feel insecure, but are still supporting Uhuru Kenyatta for the presidency and yet nobody has crossed borders to the neighboring countries as refugees.

Ipsos, in the past three polls, puts Uhurus’ popularity at 50% but his government at below 10%. If these polls holds, then Uhuru was the messiah that we have been waiting for. 

The issue here is not whether Kenyans are blind or stupid, but that Ipsos is cooking data and making Kenyans look stupid. This is the time to say “no”. Enough is enough. Critical analysis of the Ipsos’s report clearly shows that they did not interview anybody, but sat down in somebody’s basement or kitchen and cooked the data. For example, out of the 2057 interviewed, 269 were from Central province and 269 from Nyanza province. 

It is rare to interview the same number of respondents from two different regions in a survey based on the nature of random sampling; in this case, the Kikuyu central province and the Luo Nyanza. 

Another similar scenario is evidenced in the survey of December 21, 2016 by Ipsos that was reported by Marikio Muchiri. The poll sampled and interviewed 1083 respondents. Ipsos was lucky again to interview 142 respondents from Central province and 142 from Nyanza province. 

For all the people, they approached, all of them answered their questions. There was no refusal or non-respondents. This is a rare phenomenon in a typical survey. It is achievable in a controlled laboratory experiment or in surveys conducted in hospitals, where patients can be chosen and categorized from a list of monthly admissions by their ailments, vital signs, and socioeconomic differences to generate treatment cases and non-treatment cases.

Let us give Ipsos the benefit of doubt and compute the figures given to us. The total number of people interviewed from Central and Nyanza was 284 (26.2%) of the total interviewees.  Therefore 73.8% were from other regions. For Uhuru to have a 50% rating in overall, he must have gained popularity in almost all Raila’s opposition areas. 

This clearly shows lack of truth in the results of all these pseudo surveys. What Ipsos is doing is totally an unacceptable. This is another form of psychological voters’ suppression and disenfranchisement.

Another way of uncovering cooked data is to look for a repeated digit presentation. Is one figure appearing consistently in one category of response?  This is referred to as digital preference syndrome. It is an unconscious digit preference without the individuals involved realizing what they are doing. 

In this report, figure 6 was the preferred digit. The survey found that the number of undecided was the same in Nyanza (6%), Central (6%), Eastern (6%) and Rift Valley (6%). This is total baloney and not a coincident at all the three. There is no randomness which is the fundamental backbone of a scientific sample survey. 

It is simply, a falsification of data. When you tell a recording clerk or a keyboarder to put 6% for undecided, he or she will put the same figure for all undecideds in all areas, irrespective of the population size or political heterogeneity of that area. This is what happened in the Ipsos data-cooking kitchen. Let us look at the past Ipsos synovate polls with a magnifying glass.

Past polls

·         In March 2016 Ipsos interviewed 2076

·         June 4^th, 2016 Ipsos interviewed 2067

·         December 21^st, 2016, Ipsos interviewed 2057

The sample sizes of the three surveys clearly give a good picture of doctored data. The first two figures are 20 followed by a 6 or a 7 and ending with a 6 or a 7. You can clearly see that, in March and in June, the total number of people interviewed is the same, but the last two digits have been switched. 

This never happens in real-world situations, but with unintelligently manipulated data. This kind of carelessness can happen only if you believe that you are dealing with illiterate, ignorant, and stupid communities; in this case, Kenyans. 

The total number interviewed by Ipsos in December is the same as the rest, only that the figure 6 has been replaced by the figure 5. This is the work of a very lazy person.

Ipsos’ polls constantly compare Raila and Uhuru’s popularities and conclude that the findings were synonymous with who support the government and those who resent the government. This implies that if you are close to Raila or come from Raila’s region, then, by default, you are against the government and vice versa. This is the picture painted by these phony polls by Ipsos. 

The data, however, are far from accurate. The table below shows snapshot popularity between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta. To reduce Railas’ popularity in a poll, Ipsos compare him with his top deputies while including Uhuru Kenyatta in the group.  Uhuru is never put in the same poll with Ruto or any other person from Jubilee in. 

The opposition group therefore split numbers which lowers their popularity percentages and Uhuru will emerge the most popular presidential candidate.  Ipsos will never include Ruto in the

is is a game of number manipulation and the results are far from truth. Alternatively, Ruto is considered” mtu wa mkono” for Uhuru. He once boasted for being mtu wa Mkono wa Jirongo. I don’t think that Kalenjins this time will be ready to be called “Watu wa mkono wa Watu wa central.”

Ipos presidential popularity polls result by dates (1)

Presidential Candidates	Polls Date
	April 2016	June 2016	Aug. 2016	Sept. 2016
Raila Odinga	23	28	22	22
Uhuru Kenyatta	48	51	41	50
Difference	25	23	19	28

Ipos presidential popularity polls result by dates (2)

Presidential Candidates	Polls Date
	Dec. 17, 2016	Dec. 21, 2016
Raila Odinga	22	22
Uhuru Kenyatta	50	50
Difference	28	28

Falsification of data is a criminal act, and, if proven true, Dr. Tom Wolf must be subpoenaed and reprimanded accordingly. He has waged a psycho-political war on Kenyans in the opposition areas. People have been traumatized just by the mere fact that Uhuru Kenyatta may be the Kenyan president again. Dr. Wolf looks foreign to me. Probably he is a Kenyan citizen by now, if he married Njeri.  

But in the past, such aliens caused miseries and political instabilities to some African countries. In Uganda, Idi Amin had a Briton called Bob Astles, and his influence caused Uganda a hell-like experience. My advice to the Kenyan leaders never to rely on these colonial masters, since they do not have Kenyans’ interests on their agenda.

In all the past polls, Raila’s popularity must remain in the 20s, and the preferred figure is 22% as presented in the table above. These figures remained constant irrespective of the month of the year, the political temperature of the country, the economic hardship at any given time, the teachers’, the doctors’, the nurses’, and he Matatus’ strikes. 

The polls conservatively remain constant with the president leading Raila despite the Kenyan armys’ death toll in Somalia, the hunger in the country, sky rocketing price of maize and sugar, lack of water supply especially in Nairobi city, and semi-arid rural areas, the government failure to proide relief food to starving citizen, the death toll in Kerio Valley from cattle rustlers etc. 

The president’s rating must be 50% and above, or somewhere around 50%. But no ratings for the deputy president. Why is the 50% figure particularly important? If the president gets below 50% in the general election, there will be a runoff and he cannot match Agwambo because Raila is mysterious in Nature. Like the great grandfather Gor Mahia, he can turn into anything and changes any situation. 

My question is very simple. Why is Raila’s popularity according to Ipsos, is stuck at 22%? There are many answers to this question, but only two sounds plausible. 

Either there is no polling done and the Ipsos Mzee sits in his office, cooking data while drinking Chibuku or Amuna, or, Mzee, Dr. Tom Wolf alias pollster, has a database of 2067 people that he interviews, all the time, and gets the same answers each time he calls them. But to save time and money he will call them with a simplified question “has your political opinion changed from the last time I talked to you?” and the answer is simple “No Mzee, bado, ni ile ile tu.”

Bob Astles with President Idi Amin in 1978 

Kenyans must reject Ipsos Polling firm and its agenda and activities in the country. We should never allow our election to be influenced by bogus firms. Can Dr. Wolf truly show Kenyans his credentials? And where he learned his polling skills? I am very sure that the university concerned, if any, may withdraw his certificate. 

Our qualitative analysis, based on non scientific public opinion clearly shows that RAILA ODINGA will be the next Kenya president, come the August election of 2017. 

We hereby promise Kenyans that we are going to conduct credible scientific polls heading towards the election to give credible scientific data that will be reliable. NASA North America is committed to counteract corruption and miscommunication, and the lies fed to the Kenyan population. Never believe in Ipsos polling again, since it is simply a hoax.