ODM Party at crossroads: Odinga's Exit May Reshape Kenya's Political Landscape

By Joseph Lister Nyaringo

The passing of Raila Amolo Odinga has carved a profound chasm in Kenya's political topography. In the aftermath, we can expect seismic tremors to reverberate through the political landscape, precipitating a paradigm shift that will recalibrate the contours of the current administration, redefine multiparty politics, and reshape the trajectory of the 2027 presidential election.

The late party leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was the linchpin that had held the two-decade-old party together. Even before the week-long national mourning period decreed by President William Ruto has elapsed, it is glaringly clear that Odinga's departure has unleashed a maelstrom of political uncertainty, rendering new realignments within the party an inevitability.

A potential merger between ODM and President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) appears imminent, judging by the pronouncements from proponents of the broad-based government during Odinga's burial on Sunday. This development may even prompt the adoption of a new name that encompasses both ODM and UDA, a precedent that has been witnessed previously in Kenya's history of mergers and political coalition-building.

If this happens, it could completely neuter ODM’s identity in the country as a distinct opposition voice. President Ruto has already expressed his desire to keep ODM in the ruling coalition, hinting at a possible political alliance ahead of the 2027 elections.

The recent development precipitated by the demise of ODM party leader Raila Odinga may galvanize certain ODM officials to defect from the party or challenge the proposed merger in court. Dissenting voices within ODM, including Governor James Orengo, Senators Edwin Sifuna and Geoffrey Osotsi, and MPs Caleb Amisi, Babu Owino, and Milly Odhiambo, may ultimately contest the merger through litigation, thereby potentially altering the party's trajectory.

Moreover, detractors of the broad-based government and the prospective merger of ODM and UDA led my Edwin Sifuna will likely attempt to persuade fellow party members to either abandon ship or urge the pro-government team led by Oburu Odinga to defect from ODM.

The ODM saga is merely unfolding, with all eyes fixed on key figures including Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga (interim party leader), Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Opiyo Wandayi, Wycliffe Oparanya, governors Simba Arati, Abdullswamad Sheriff Nassir, Gladys Wanga, and MPs Peter Kaluma and Junet Mohamed, to defect from the party and join President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Another possible scenario is this, if the court or registrar of political parties approves a merger, it could result in Edwin Sifuna's group quitting ODM to form a new party or join the Wiper Democratic Front, led by Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, who appears to be President Ruto's main challenger for the 2027 presidential election.

Broadly speaking, we are likely to witness a replay of the political theatre of the early 1990s, wherein the Forum for Restoration of Democracy (FORD) splintered into two factions: Ford Kenya, led by Raila's father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and Ford Asili, led by Kenneth Matiba.

Odinga's departure will undoubtedly trigger substantial political upheaval in Kenya's landscape. Divisions are already emerging in the Luo Nyanza region, where the community lacks a unifying figure following his passing. The interim party leader, Oburu Odinga, may find it challenging to unite the region, not to mention the Orange Democratic Movement party, given the absence of Raila's powerful leadership.

On the other hand, Senator Oburu appears to lack the charisma and diplomatic finesse necessary to broker a rapprochement between the party's antagonists and proponents. As a straight shooter, Oburu's public pronouncements since the formation of the broad-based government have reflected a sense of inevitability, suggesting that ODM is firmly entrenched within the Ruto administration and will likely endorse his bid for a second term in 2027. This stance starkly contrasts with that of ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who has expressed open defiance towards the broad-based government, despite his late leader's erstwhile support for it.

The Finance Cabinet secretary John Mbadi who is perhaps the highest beneficiary from the ODM party by virtue of the plum docket he holds in the Ruto government does not have the glue that can hold the party together. He is emotional, combative and a maverick in the ODM party.

The Kisumu Women Representative, Ruth Odinga, who is also the younger sister of Raila Odinga, appeared to espouse a unifying spirit aimed at bolstering the party's negotiating leverage with other key stakeholders in the country during Odinga's funeral on Sunday. She seemed to suggest that ODM will pursue a pre-election pact wherein it will nominate its preferred candidate as President Ruto's running mate in 2027.

Suppose this scenario materializes under the current political landscape. In that case, it may potentially sideline Prof. Kithure Kindiki, the incumbent Deputy President, from the running mate slot in 2027, given that he currently occupies the same position, thereby rendering him ineligible or less competitive for the spot.

However, suppose Ruto's parliamentary majority successfully navigates the passage of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report of November 2023. In that case, it will likely precipitate a power-sharing arrangement that may co-opt dissenting voices by incorporating prominent politicians from Kenya's larger ethnic communities, such as the Kikuyu and Luhya.

One wonders why internecine squabbles within ODM have erupted prematurely, even before the week-long national mourning period announced by the Ruto government has elapsed, following the passing of one of Africa's most prominent political figures.

Would it not be prudent for ODM leaders to pause for reflection and introspection, and conduct some soul-searching, instead of throwing words carelessly about the party, even before the seven days mourning for Odinga, set by the current government elapsed?

Following the revelations at Odinga's funeral on Sunday, internal power struggles within the ODM party appear imminent. This is particularly evident between those loyal to the Odinga family and others seeking a new direction, notably Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who also serves as the party's Secretary-General.

The pro-Odinga family faction of ODM, which seemingly favours maintaining the status quo, including remaining within the broad-based government and ultimately supporting President Ruto's re-election bid in 2027, comprises Governor Wanga, Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi, among others. Conversely, the anti-Ruto faction is led by Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino, alongside several others who have yet to declare their stance now that Odinga has departed the political scene.

The current impasse within the ODM party underscores the imperative of succession planning for influential leaders. As the biblical adage goes, "Let a man commend himself in a small matter, and he shall be entrusted with greater" (Luke 16:10). In ancient Israel, monarchs like David wisely groomed their successors, thereby ensuring continuity and stability.

Conversely, Raila Odinga's failure to clearly delineate a succession plan for his political legacy has precipitated uncertainty within the ODM party. This episode serves as a reminder for leaders to establish robust mechanisms that safeguard their legacy and ensure the continuation of their work, rather than leaving their organisations vulnerable to debilitating power struggles and instability.

As ODM navigates a new era in the absence of Odinga's leadership, several pivotal factors will determine its future trajectory, including party loyalty and members' adherence to the party's core ideals, which will be crucial in ascertaining whether they remain committed to the party or defect to rival political formations. Ultimately, the party's future actions will profoundly impact Kenya's governance landscape, particularly in the run-up to the 2027 elections.