By Kenyan Diaspora
Dr Tom Wolf, CEO Ipsos
New
York, United States-Kenyans
in the diaspora who support Raila Amollo Odinga in the National Super Alliance
(NASA) would like to make the following statement as pertains to the Ipsos
Synovate’s polls survey released recently pitting President Uhuru Kenyatta of
Jubilee and Raila Odinga of the NASA coalitions.
Immediately after the announcement of the formation of the NASA
political outfit, the super alliance opposition party to challenge the Jubilee
government in the August 2017 election, the Ipsos polling firm released an
opinion poll. The finding of the poll was well presented with bar
charts, pie charts and other forms of pseudo-descriptive statistical data.
We
have summarized their bar chart and simplified it in the table presented below
for easy analysis and discussion. The findings of this poll have no merit,
since there was no poll done. Forensic analysis clearly shows that all the data
presented were cooked.
The aim was to show that President Uhuru Kenyatta was ahead
of the opposition leaders in popularity. For example, the poll reporters
assumed that Nyanza province is a NASA stronghold; central province is a
Jubilee stronghold; NASA zones are automatically Raila Odinga’s supporters;
Jubilee zones are Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters; and for the last five years, both
Jubilee and NASA had an equal chance to promote and implement their development
agendas.
These assumptions ignored the fact that Jubilee run the government and
NASA did not; that nothing changed in terms of political grouping since the
last election.
To compare NASA with Jubilee is not only absurd, but crazy. NASA
has just formed and in the last 5 months it was still brewing in Mudavadi’s
head yet Jubilee was busy running the government; NASA had no definitive
leader, no members, and not even campaigned or told Kenyans its purpose,
agenda, or presented its manifesto.
But Dr. Wolf has already compared its
development rating with that of Jubilee in terms of education, health care
provision, and enhancing regional security for the last five years. Interestingly,
they found that of the 2057 imaginary Kenyans interviewed by Ipsos, 2% approve
of Jubilee’s performance in improving the health of Kenyans, while 0% approves
of NASA on this issue.
Zero percent
rating may mean that all NASA supporters disapproved NASA agenda or NASA was
not inexistence by the time its development agenda was compared with that of
Jubilee or nobody was interviewed at all and data was cooked. If the reported
facts were true, then 98% of the Kenyans disapprove of the Jubilee’s ability to
improve health care. With such a low approval rating for the Jubilee
government, it is magical or miraculous that Uhuru Kenyatta’s rating is
steadily rising.
If a 2% approval rate for Jubilee in health care provision and
management is a fact, then the doctors’ and nurses’ strikes that paralyzed the
country was justified. According to any known standard, it will be a disaster
for any government to have a 2% approval rating in health care. This is a
typical example of the cooked poll data.
Summarized data from
Ipsos polls bar chart (1)
Total number
interviewed
|
|
N
|
J
|
|
Jubilee
|
NASA
|
Nyanza
|
Central
|
N=2057
|
N=934
|
N=693
|
N=269
|
N=269
|
Leaning Towards
|
45.8%
|
34%
|
|
|
Improve Health care
|
2%
|
0%
|
|
|
Improve Education
|
4%
|
0%
|
|
|
Enhancing security
|
1%
|
1%
|
|
|
Undecided
|
|
|
|
|
Summarized data from
Ipsos polls bar chart (2)
Undecided
|
Nyanza
|
Central
|
Eastern
|
Rift Valley
|
6%
|
6%
|
6%
|
6%
|
The table shows that 45.8% of Kenyans lean toward Jubilee party
while 34% towards NASA. The poll further indicates that only 4% of Kenyans approve
of Jubilee’s handling of education and 1%, its enhancing of security, against
NASA’s 0% and 1% respectively. This rating is too low for the Jubilee
government and there is no way that 45.8% of Kenyans would still lean toward
such a low-rated government.
If this finding were true, what would be wrong
with those leaning towards Jubilee in spite of the government’s extremely low
rating in health, education and enhancing security? Unless there has been
massive brain transplants during which their brains got totally changed. NASA
had just been formed and is in the primordial stages, but Ipsos rates it at 1%
- equal with Jubilee in handling security.
Therefore, according to this poll,
99% of Kenyans feel insecure, but are still supporting Uhuru Kenyatta for the
presidency and yet nobody has crossed borders to the neighboring countries as
refugees.
Ipsos, in the past three polls, puts Uhurus’ popularity at 50%
but his government at below 10%. If these polls holds, then Uhuru was the messiah that we have been waiting for.
The issue here is not whether Kenyans are blind or stupid, but that Ipsos is
cooking data and making Kenyans look stupid. This is the time to say “no”. Enough
is enough. Critical analysis of the Ipsos’s report clearly shows that they did
not interview anybody, but sat down in somebody’s basement or kitchen and
cooked the data. For example, out of the 2057 interviewed, 269 were from
Central province and 269 from Nyanza province.
It is rare to interview the same
number of respondents from two different regions in a survey based on the
nature of random sampling; in this case, the Kikuyu central province and the
Luo Nyanza.
Another similar scenario is evidenced in the survey of December 21,
2016 by Ipsos that was reported by Marikio Muchiri. The poll sampled and
interviewed 1083 respondents. Ipsos was lucky again to interview 142
respondents from Central province and 142 from Nyanza province.
For all the
people, they approached, all of them answered their questions. There was no
refusal or non-respondents. This is a rare phenomenon in a typical survey. It
is achievable in a controlled laboratory experiment or in surveys conducted in
hospitals, where patients can be chosen and categorized from a list of monthly
admissions by their ailments, vital signs, and socioeconomic differences to
generate treatment cases and non-treatment cases.
Let us give Ipsos the benefit of doubt and compute the figures
given to us. The total number of people interviewed from Central and Nyanza was
284 (26.2%) of the total interviewees. Therefore 73.8% were from other
regions. For Uhuru to have a 50% rating in overall, he must have gained
popularity in almost all Raila’s opposition areas.
This clearly shows lack of
truth in the results of all these pseudo surveys. What Ipsos is doing is
totally an unacceptable. This is another form of psychological voters’
suppression and disenfranchisement.
Another way of uncovering cooked data is to look for a repeated
digit presentation. Is one figure appearing consistently in one category of
response? This is referred to as digital preference syndrome.
It is an unconscious digit preference without the individuals involved
realizing what they are doing.
In this report, figure 6 was the preferred
digit. The survey found that the number of undecided was the same in Nyanza
(6%), Central (6%), Eastern (6%) and Rift Valley (6%). This is total baloney
and not a coincident at all the three. There is no randomness which is the
fundamental backbone of a scientific sample survey.
It is simply, a
falsification of data. When you tell a recording clerk or a keyboarder to put
6% for undecided, he or she will put the same figure for all undecideds in all
areas, irrespective of the population size or political heterogeneity of that
area. This is what happened in the Ipsos data-cooking kitchen. Let us look at
the past Ipsos synovate polls with a magnifying glass.
Past polls
·
In March 2016 Ipsos
interviewed 2076
·
June 4th,
2016 Ipsos interviewed 2067
·
December 21st,
2016, Ipsos interviewed 2057
The sample sizes of the three surveys clearly give a good
picture of doctored data. The first two figures are 20 followed by a 6 or a 7
and ending with a 6 or a 7. You can clearly see that, in March and in June, the
total number of people interviewed is the same, but the last two digits have
been switched.
This never happens in real-world situations, but with unintelligently
manipulated data. This kind of carelessness can happen only if you believe that
you are dealing with illiterate, ignorant, and stupid communities; in this
case, Kenyans.
The total number interviewed by Ipsos in December is the same as
the rest, only that the figure 6 has been replaced by the figure 5. This is the
work of a very lazy person.
Ipsos’ polls constantly compare Raila and Uhuru’s
popularities and conclude that the findings were synonymous with who support
the government and those who resent the government. This implies that if you
are close to Raila or come from Raila’s region, then, by default, you are
against the government and vice versa. This is the picture painted by these
phony polls by Ipsos.
The data, however, are far from accurate. The table below
shows snapshot popularity between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta. To reduce
Railas’ popularity in a poll, Ipsos compare him with his top deputies while
including Uhuru Kenyatta in the group.
Uhuru is never put in the same poll with Ruto or any other person from
Jubilee in.
The opposition group therefore split numbers which lowers their
popularity percentages and Uhuru will emerge the most popular presidential
candidate. Ipsos will never include Ruto in the
is is a game of number manipulation
and the results are far from truth. Alternatively, Ruto is considered” mtu wa
mkono” for Uhuru. He once boasted for being mtu wa Mkono wa Jirongo. I don’t
think that Kalenjins this time will be ready to be called “Watu wa mkono wa
Watu wa central.”
Ipos presidential
popularity polls result by dates (1)
Presidential
Candidates
|
Polls Date
|
April 2016
|
June 2016
|
Aug. 2016
|
Sept. 2016
|
Raila Odinga
|
23
|
28
|
22
|
22
|
Uhuru Kenyatta
|
48
|
51
|
41
|
50
|
Difference
|
25
|
23
|
19
|
28
|
Ipos presidential popularity polls result by dates (2)
Presidential
Candidates
|
Polls Date
|
Dec. 17, 2016
|
Dec. 21, 2016
|
Raila Odinga
|
22
|
22
|
Uhuru Kenyatta
|
50
|
50
|
Difference
|
28
|
28
|
Falsification of data is a criminal act, and, if proven true,
Dr. Tom Wolf must be subpoenaed and reprimanded accordingly. He has waged a
psycho-political war on Kenyans in the opposition areas. People have been
traumatized just by the mere fact that Uhuru Kenyatta may be the Kenyan
president again. Dr. Wolf looks foreign to me. Probably he is a Kenyan citizen
by now, if he married Njeri.
But in the past, such aliens caused miseries
and political instabilities to some African countries. In Uganda, Idi Amin had
a Briton called Bob Astles, and his influence caused Uganda a hell-like experience.
My advice to the Kenyan leaders never to rely on these colonial masters, since
they do not have Kenyans’ interests on their agenda.
In all the past polls, Raila’s popularity must remain in the
20s, and the preferred figure is 22% as presented in the table above. These
figures remained constant irrespective of the month of the year, the political
temperature of the country, the economic hardship at any given time, the
teachers’, the doctors’, the nurses’, and he Matatus’ strikes.
The polls
conservatively remain constant with the president leading Raila despite the
Kenyan armys’ death toll in Somalia, the hunger in the country, sky rocketing
price of maize and sugar, lack of water supply especially in Nairobi city, and
semi-arid rural areas, the government failure to proide relief food to starving
citizen, the death toll in Kerio Valley from cattle rustlers etc.
The
president’s rating must be 50% and above, or somewhere around 50%. But no
ratings for the deputy president. Why is the 50% figure particularly important?
If the president gets below 50% in the general election, there will be a runoff
and he cannot match Agwambo because Raila is mysterious in Nature. Like the
great grandfather Gor Mahia, he can turn into anything and changes any
situation.
My question is very simple. Why is Raila’s popularity according to
Ipsos, is stuck at 22%? There are many answers to this question, but only two
sounds plausible.
Either there is no polling done and the Ipsos Mzee sits in
his office, cooking data while drinking Chibuku or Amuna, or, Mzee, Dr. Tom
Wolf alias pollster, has a database of 2067 people that he interviews, all the
time, and gets the same answers each time he calls them. But to save time and
money he will call them with a simplified question “has your political opinion
changed from the last time I talked to you?” and the answer is simple “No Mzee,
bado, ni ile ile tu.”
Bob Astles with
President Idi Amin in 1978
Kenyans must reject Ipsos Polling firm and its agenda and activities
in the country. We should never allow our election to be influenced by bogus
firms. Can Dr. Wolf truly show Kenyans his credentials? And where he learned
his polling skills? I am very sure that the university concerned, if any, may
withdraw his certificate.
Our qualitative analysis, based on non scientific public opinion clearly shows that RAILA ODINGA will be the next Kenya president,
come the August election of 2017.
We hereby promise Kenyans that we are going
to conduct credible scientific polls heading towards the election to give
credible scientific data that will be reliable. NASA North America is committed
to counteract corruption and miscommunication, and the lies fed to the Kenyan
population. Never believe in Ipsos polling again, since it is simply a hoax.
