Ruto should strike a political deal with Raila Odinga to stay afloat

Ruto should strike a political deal with Raila Odinga to stay afloat
By Joseph Lister Nyaringo
There is no absolute enmity in politics except permanent interests based on individual ambitions. This is the reason why many political leaders could loathe each but are still able to mend fences to safeguard self-interests or the collective good.

Despite the turbulence Deputy President William Samoei Ruto is going through in the Jubilee government, there is still room for him to navigate new frontiers to remain relevant in Kenya’s political landscape.

The DP should not waste time agonizing about the imbroglio in the Jubilee government. He should instead start courting new and old political partners given the unpredictable nature of the country’s political terrain. 

The undemocratic notion that a Presidential election in Kenya can only be determined by cartels is archaic and should be ignored. Whilst the notion has benefitted some leaders to rise to the top, events leading to the Kibaki presidency in 2002 speak the opposite.

The unprecedented move by opposition leaders to defeat the current President Uhuru Kenyatta, who was being backed by the late President Daniel Moi under KANU in 2002, is something Ruto should pursue. This will neutralize his humiliation in a government he serves as second in command.  

Desperate times often require radical moves. For DP Ruto to resuscitate his dwindling political fortunes, he must make a strong and calculated move that will surprise both friend and foe.

Ruto, must try and whitewash (dismantle) the political covenant between President Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga, since it’s perceived to be the genesis of his political misfortunes in the Jubilee government.

Like Odinga, Ruto should forgive political detractors
Many of Mr. Odinga’s supporters contend with the fact that, the ODM leader is extremely forgiving.  Irrespective of the gravity of differences, he is always ready to build bridges with his political enemies. 

Nothing deterred Odinga from working with retired President Mwai Kibaki despite going through a tumultuous political experience in the 2007 Presidential election.

If Odinga forgave the late President Daniel Moi, who detained him without trial for almost a decade, no major difference could prevent him from working with Ruto! 

The ODM leader did a handshake with his former political nemesis- President Kenyatta despite fighting it out in two elections which Kenyatta controversially won. The Handshake birthed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which is alleged to be the genesis of Ruto’s political predicaments.

Despite not sharing similar political ideologies, Ruto and Odinga, share similar political experiences that can be harnessed for their political good. Both leaders are tenacious and highly ambitious. 

As the adage goes, adversity loves company. Odinga is Ruto’s former ally. Both are victims of political betrayal emanating from the leaders they once trusted.

The politically betrayed can only succeed through a rebranding
Dusting off and scaling down his ambitions may work wonders for Ruto’s political future. Such a move has worked in the past if events that created the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2002 is something to go by. 

In fact, Ruto should consider reconstituting another Pentagon similar to that of 2007. This will be more viable for Ruto and Raila than trying to gain from Kenyatta’s amorphous succession maneuvers. Encouragingly, all former Pentagon members except Najib Balala who is a Cabinet Secretary are in active politics.  

Having Odinga, as a presidential candidate with Ruto’s backing, this will be the real deal. It’s what they call in Swahili “Moto wa kuotea mbali” (the fire that will keep you in a distance).
Due to constitutional restrictions, Ruto may not be Raila’s running mate but can serve in another capacity if a referendum paves the way for an expanded executive.  

An expanded Executive will be ideal to bring on board the 2007 Pentagon members-Joe Nyagah, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Najib Balala for purposes of diversity and political accommodation.

Political betrayal in whichever form should serve as a strengthener to the betrayed. Many leaders in Kenya have gone through some form of betrayal. In fact, the majority of Odinga’s 2007 Pentagon team except for Najib Balala and Joe Nyagah have gone through betrayal. 

A coalition of Odinga and Ruto will be a sure win in 2022
If Ruto reconciles with Odinga, it will be a killer blow that will vanquish any coalition in the country including the one President Kenyatta will cobble in his succession plans. 

This is perhaps the reason why some power brokers like David Murathe, are working tooth and nail to ensure that the DP and ODM leader is at loggerheads in perpetuity.

It must be remembered that Ruto is not a pushover. His tenacity to defend Odinga’s stolen victory in 2007 is the surest indication that he has what it takes to protect a Presidential victory. After all, the two controversial victories of President Kenyatta in 2013 and 2017 are courtesy of Mr. Ruto’s political acumen.

In Swahili, they say, “Dawa ya moto ni moto,” meaning you fight fire with fire. Ruto needs to court Mr. Odinga to build an alliance before 2022 in order to survive the current Jubilee imbroglio and stay afloat politically. Otherwise, power brokers in the Uhuru succession will send him to the political dustbin.

Uncertainty about Kenyatta’s support for Odinga in 2022
In the post-handshake period, a section of Odinga’s adherents have a soft spot on President Kenyatta. They tend to associate Ruto with most of the corrupt practices which have derailed Kenya’s economic growth. 

Those who are ambivalent about Kenyatta’s support for Odinga’s 2022 bid do empathize with Ruto over the humiliation he is going through in the Jubilee government. They remember the series of humiliations that the ODM leader endured the grand coalition government when he served as Prime Minister.  

If William Ruto and Raila Odinga broker a political deal in readiness for 2022, it will be one of the biggest political shifts in Kenya’s political history.

As the country grapples under the Covid-19 pandemic, time will tell how the current deputy President will play his cards as he aims at the ultimate prize in 2022.

Nyaringo is the President of Kenya Patriotic Movement, a diaspora lobby based in the US