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Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Money will determine between Raila and Uhuru, who becomes President in 2017
Joseph Lister Nyaringo and
The political opposition Coalition for reform and
Democracy (Cord) should remember that it will not be a walk in the park for
President Uhuru Kenyatta of the Jubilee Coalition to hand over power in 2017.
However, if Cord
will garner votes resoundingly like what NARC did in 2002 when Kibaki was first elected, then President
Uhuru Kenyatta may find himself with only one option- to concede.
The incumbent Uhuru, may also want to safeguard his
legacy if Cord wins resoundingly. Such move is likely to ensure that he doesn’t
soil family’s name in future contests. This will maintain the trust of Kenyans
to the family.
However, if the elections will be too
close like what happened in
Tanzania between President John
Magufuli and hismain rival Edward Lowassa last year, Jubilee will take advantage of this where Cord will cry foul but to no
fruition. On the other hand, the metrics of 2013 election results
will equally be a disaster for Cord.
Cord, should avoid handling their campaign the way they
did in 2013.They need a clear strategy devoid of complacence, craft a catchy
manifesto which appeals to the populace and ensure a fair and orderly handling
of fallouts after party nominations. Above all, identifying a formidable Presidential
candidate democratically will deflect a Musalia Mudavadi scenario of 2013.
The Jubilee coalition is lethal in its calculations.
Whichever strategy Uhuru used to kill the ICC dragon, the lesson he has learnt as
president, and his closeness with two East African leaders- Yoweri Museveni of
Uganda and Paul Kagame of Rwanda whose democratic curriculum vitae are
questionable, should put Cord on the alert.
What may help Cord to strengthen itself is to pursue the
OKOA Kenya referendum with gusto and determination. This will ensure that, the proposed
recommendations like reforming the IEBC to provide a level playing field in the
contest are factored in law before the next election.
The opposition should also remember that in Africa, incumbency
is pivotal in determining election outcomes. This is because, they control all
tentacles of governance which is often used to catalyse victory.
The Jubilee government has been embroiled in numerous
financial scandals. Funds have vanished like the Malaysian aircraft without a
trace. If the end users happen to be top politicians in Jubilee, this will
critically affect the outcome of the election. The stolen money is likely to be
used to entice voters, funding candidates and buying defectors from the
The yet to be launched Jubilee Party of Kenya is riding
on a high horse. Through a charm offensive carried out by deputy president Ruto,
it is luring opposition legislators with goodies in the Coast and Western
Kenya. Things will get murky for Cord as we stride towards 2017.
Many mysterious financial improprieties have been
reported on public expenditure. Notably, the government has been fuzzy on the Eurobond
and the projects it funded. This was brought to the fore by Raila Odinga.
Secondly, the auditor General’s revelation last year how a
whopping Kshs 67 billion could not be accounted for remains as mysterious as
the dark side of the moon. To add insult to injury, Kshs 303 was declared
unaccounted for during the transition from Kibaki presidency to Uhuru
Presidency. The informed can figure out where the money may have disappeared
This should catalyze the opposition Cord not to sleep on
its tail and expect victory on a silver platter. Since
Raila Odinga of Cord is likely to face the incumbent, next year, he needs to
think critically with his co-principals- former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka
and Senator Moses Wetangula on how they will face the moneyed Jubilee in 2017.
needs to build their campaign on a better strategy as opposed to Jubilee which
is only riding on money. Bringing
to the fold former politicians like Dr Sally Kosgey, Henry Kosgey, and Kipruto
Arap Kirwa who are currently silent will spur Cord’s support base in the
vote-rich Rift Valley. In the North eastern Kenya, Senator Billow Kerrow who is
one of the dissenting leaders in Jubilee needs to be prevailed upon to join
It is up to the cord coalition to do its math well if
indeed they are serious with taking power from Jubilee which is swimming from
crisis to crisis.
Cord should wake up from its slumber bed and craft a technical
and well planned election victory formula to outshine the moneyed jubilee which
has the advantage of incumbency. Until then, we are closely watching.