By Joseph Lister Nyaringo
The late party
leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was the linchpin that had held
the two-decade-old party together. Even before the week-long national mourning
period decreed by President William Ruto has elapsed, it is glaringly clear
that Odinga's departure has unleashed a maelstrom of political uncertainty,
rendering new realignments within the party an inevitability.
A potential merger
between ODM and President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) appears
imminent, judging by the pronouncements from proponents of the broad-based
government during Odinga's burial on Sunday. This development may even prompt
the adoption of a new name that encompasses both ODM and UDA, a precedent that
has been witnessed previously in Kenya's history of mergers and political
coalition-building.
If this happens, it
could completely neuter ODM’s identity in the country as a distinct opposition
voice. President Ruto has already expressed his desire to keep ODM in the
ruling coalition, hinting at a possible political alliance ahead of the 2027
elections.
The recent
development precipitated by the demise of ODM party leader Raila Odinga may
galvanize certain ODM officials to defect from the party or challenge the
proposed merger in court. Dissenting voices within ODM, including Governor
James Orengo, Senators Edwin Sifuna and Geoffrey Osotsi, and MPs Caleb Amisi,
Babu Owino, and Milly Odhiambo, may ultimately contest the merger through
litigation, thereby potentially altering the party's trajectory.
Moreover, detractors
of the broad-based government and the prospective merger of ODM and UDA led my
Edwin Sifuna will likely attempt to persuade fellow party members to either
abandon ship or urge the pro-government team led by Oburu Odinga to defect from
ODM.
The ODM saga is
merely unfolding, with all eyes fixed on key figures including Siaya Senator
Oburu Odinga (interim party leader), Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi, Hassan
Joho, Opiyo Wandayi, Wycliffe Oparanya, governors Simba Arati, Abdullswamad
Sheriff Nassir, Gladys Wanga, and MPs Peter Kaluma and Junet Mohamed, to defect
from the party and join President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Another possible
scenario is this, if the court or registrar of political parties approves a
merger, it could result in Edwin Sifuna's group quitting ODM to form a new
party or join the Wiper Democratic Front, led by Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, who
appears to be President Ruto's main challenger for the 2027 presidential
election.
Broadly speaking, we
are likely to witness a replay of the political theatre of the early 1990s,
wherein the Forum for Restoration of Democracy (FORD) splintered into two
factions: Ford Kenya, led by Raila's father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and Ford
Asili, led by Kenneth Matiba.
Odinga's departure
will undoubtedly trigger substantial political upheaval in Kenya's landscape.
Divisions are already emerging in the Luo Nyanza region, where the community
lacks a unifying figure following his passing. The interim party leader, Oburu
Odinga, may find it challenging to unite the region, not to mention the Orange
Democratic Movement party, given the absence of Raila's powerful leadership.
On the other hand,
Senator Oburu appears to lack the charisma and diplomatic finesse necessary to
broker a rapprochement between the party's antagonists and proponents. As a
straight shooter, Oburu's public pronouncements since the formation of the
broad-based government have reflected a sense of inevitability, suggesting that
ODM is firmly entrenched within the Ruto administration and will likely endorse
his bid for a second term in 2027. This stance starkly contrasts with that of
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who has expressed open defiance towards the
broad-based government, despite his late leader's erstwhile support for it.
The Finance Cabinet
secretary John Mbadi who is perhaps the highest beneficiary from the ODM party
by virtue of the plum docket he holds in the Ruto government does not have the
glue that can hold the party together. He is emotional, combative and a maverick
in the ODM party.
The Kisumu Women
Representative, Ruth Odinga, who is also the younger sister of Raila Odinga,
appeared to espouse a unifying spirit aimed at bolstering the party's
negotiating leverage with other key stakeholders in the country during Odinga's
funeral on Sunday. She seemed to suggest that ODM will pursue a pre-election
pact wherein it will nominate its preferred candidate as President Ruto's
running mate in 2027.
Suppose this
scenario materializes under the current political landscape. In that case, it
may potentially sideline Prof. Kithure Kindiki, the incumbent Deputy President,
from the running mate slot in 2027, given that he currently occupies the same
position, thereby rendering him ineligible or less competitive for the spot.
However, suppose
Ruto's parliamentary majority successfully navigates the passage of the
National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report of November 2023. In that case, it
will likely precipitate a power-sharing arrangement that may co-opt dissenting
voices by incorporating prominent politicians from Kenya's larger ethnic
communities, such as the Kikuyu and Luhya.
One wonders why
internecine squabbles within ODM have erupted prematurely, even before the
week-long national mourning period announced by the Ruto government has
elapsed, following the passing of one of Africa's most prominent political
figures.
Would it not be
prudent for ODM leaders to pause for reflection and introspection, and conduct
some soul-searching, instead of throwing words carelessly about the party, even
before the seven days mourning for Odinga, set by the current government elapsed?
Following the
revelations at Odinga's funeral on Sunday, internal power struggles within the
ODM party appear imminent. This is particularly evident between those loyal to
the Odinga family and others seeking a new direction, notably Embakasi East MP
Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who also serves as the party's
Secretary-General.
The pro-Odinga
family faction of ODM, which seemingly favours maintaining the status quo,
including remaining within the broad-based government and ultimately supporting
President Ruto's re-election bid in 2027, comprises Governor Wanga, Cabinet
Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi, among others. Conversely, the
anti-Ruto faction is led by Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino, alongside several
others who have yet to declare their stance now that Odinga has departed the
political scene.
The current impasse
within the ODM party underscores the imperative of succession planning for
influential leaders. As the biblical adage goes, "Let a man commend
himself in a small matter, and he shall be entrusted with greater" (Luke
16:10). In ancient Israel, monarchs like David wisely groomed their successors,
thereby ensuring continuity and stability.
Conversely, Raila
Odinga's failure to clearly delineate a succession plan for his political
legacy has precipitated uncertainty within the ODM party. This episode serves
as a reminder for leaders to establish robust mechanisms that safeguard their
legacy and ensure the continuation of their work, rather than leaving their
organisations vulnerable to debilitating power struggles and instability.
As ODM navigates a
new era in the absence of Odinga's leadership, several pivotal factors will
determine its future trajectory, including party loyalty and members' adherence
to the party's core ideals, which will be crucial in ascertaining whether they remain
committed to the party or defect to rival political formations. Ultimately, the
party's future actions will profoundly impact Kenya's governance landscape,
particularly in the run-up to the 2027 elections.
