By Joseph Lister Nyaringo
For three electric days, Gusiiland pulsed with colour, song and anticipation as opposition leaders traversed Kisii and Nyamira counties. Markets slowed, towns swelled and villages emptied as thousands gathered for what many saw as a defining political moment. The climax felt less like a routine rally and more like a coronation. Supporters cast it as the symbolic anointment of Dr Fred Matiang’i as their foremost national standard-bearer. Beneath the chants lay a deeper hope: that this might finally be the community’s turn to stand at the centre of Kenya’s political stage and draw closer to the highest office in the land.
Kenyan politics has long revolved around ethnic mobilisation, regional bargaining and proximity to State House. The presidency is often viewed not merely as a constitutional office, but as recognition, leverage and a guarantee of influence in the distribution of opportunity and development. Access to power is equated with security and visibility. Yet this raises an uncomfortable question: if Dr Matiang’i is not chosen as the opposition’s compromise candidate, do his supporters defect? And if similar calculations arise in Western Kenya around George Natembeya, in Ukambani around Kalonzo Musyoka, or in Mount Kenya as it recalibrates after 2022, what becomes of the broader opposition project?
As the next general election approaches, the central issue is not simply who will challenge incumbent President William Ruto. It is whether the opposition can subordinate ambition to unity — and whether voters are prepared to do the same. In a system where elections are often decided by narrow margins and intricate ethnic arithmetic, fragmentation is not a minor misstep. It is an electoral gift to the incumbent. A divided opposition splits votes, muddles its message and saps momentum, while the ruling side benefits from comparative cohesion.
Recent history underscores this reality. In 2013 and 2017, opposition disunity diluted momentum and advantaged better organised rivals. Even in 2022, divisions and inconsistent messaging weakened the attempt to block Dr Ruto’s ascent to State House. Presidential politics rewards coalitions that are disciplined and expansive. It punishes ego and parallel centres of mobilisation. A divided house may command attention, but it rarely commands a majority.
Opposition leaders are rightly urged to swallow their pride and rally behind a compromise candidate with broad national appeal. Yet unity cannot remain confined to elite negotiations. Communities whose sons and daughters harbour presidential ambitions must also prepare to subordinate personal preference to collective strategy. Political maturity requires citizens to support the consensus candidate, irrespective of regional origin. The decisive consideration should be leadership capacity, integrity and national reach — not shared ethnicity. If unity at the top is essential, unity at the ballot box is indispensable.
Kenya may be an ethnicised society of more than forty-five communities, but it remains a single republic governed by one president at a time. The Constitution reflects this. A presidential candidate must secure not only a plurality of votes but at least 25 per cent in more than half of the counties. This threshold compels national coalitions and discourages narrow ethnic bids anchored in regional strongholds. It is a constitutional reminder that no community can govern alone without alliances across the republic.
In Gusiiland, Dr Matiang’i is widely regarded as a capable administrator whose tenure in senior ministries projected firmness and technocratic competence. For many Abagusii voters, his potential candidacy symbolises long-awaited national recognition. The enthusiasm during the recent tour expressed accumulated aspiration. Yet murmurs that the region might drift towards President Ruto should Dr Matiang’i fail to secure the opposition ticket reveal the enduring pull of transactional politics. Such a move would not merely weaken the opposition; it would entrench the ethnic bargaining that has often impeded issue-based governance.
The same principle applies elsewhere. Governor Natembeya’s supporters in Western Kenya may see generational renewal and assertive leadership. Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s base in Ukambani may consider his experience overdue for endorsement. In Mount Kenya, voters continue to weigh alliances amid economic pressure and political realignments. These are legitimate democratic calculations. What is dangerous is the belief that if “our son” is not chosen, the broader coalition must be punished or abandoned.
Kenyan elections are rarely won by enthusiasm in one region alone. They are won by assembling a mosaic of support across the Rift Valley, Coast, Northern Kenya, Western and Mount Kenya, persuading undecided voters and consolidating swing constituencies. An opposition alliance must therefore select the candidate most capable of transcending strongholds and attracting cross-regional backing. That choice may not favour the most popular figure within a single community, but it must favour the one with the clearest path to a national majority.
Dr Ruto’s political journey illustrates the dividends of cohesion. His 2022 campaign was anchored in a disciplined alliance and a resonant narrative. Whatever one’s judgement of his record in office, he benefited from opponents who were not fully synchronised. To repeat that pattern would be to ignore recent lessons.
Ultimately, opposition unity is not a favour to any individual leader; it is a strategic imperative for citizens seeking alternation of power and policy direction. Communities with viable contenders must resist equating personal ambition with collective destiny. If consensus produces a single flagbearer, that decision must be defended consistently at the ballot box, not supported conditionally.
Kenya’s democracy will not be strengthened by perpetual ethnic brinkmanship or threats of defection when expectations are unmet. It will be strengthened when voters choose nation over narrowness and substance over identity. The months ahead will test not only the humility of opposition leaders but also the maturity of the electorate. Mounting a credible challenge will require more than choreographed rallies and elite agreements. It will require Kisii, Kikuyu, Kamba, Luhya and every other community to accept that unity sometimes demands sacrifice.
Anything less will fragment the vote, and in that fragmentation, the incumbent will almost certainly find his path renewed.
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