Wednesday, November 5, 2025

President Samia Suluhu Conundrum: PLO Lumumba gets his facts wrong


 President Samia Suluhu Conundrum: PLO Lumumba gets his facts wrong

By Joseph Lister Nyaringo

The podcast conducted by Dr Patrick Lumumba on November 3, 2025, regarding the disputed Tanzanian Presidential election, wherein the incumbent triumphed amidst controversy and was inaugurated within the confines of a military installation, merits examination. One might reasonably conclude that the sagacious PLO Lumumba could have exhorted the incumbent President to vacate office, thus facilitating the establishment of a caretaker administration entrusted with guiding the nation towards a more inclusive and representative electoral process.

It doesn't matter whether PLO is a consultant to the Tanzanian government. As a Kenyan elite with international academic acclaim, the best he could have done was keep silent. By going ahead to state that President Samia Suluhu should not be branded a dictator, one wonders: which leader imprisons key opponents and proceeds to conduct a sham election? Which leader shuts off internet connectivity in a country of almost 70 million people merely to stifle the truth, kill dissent and freedom and cling to power without popular will?

The actions of President Samia Suluhu's administration have sparked massive outrage in Tanzania and beyond. Some critics argue that her approach to governance and treatment of opposition figures differs notably from that of former leaders. For instance, comparisons have been drawn between her policies and those of other regional leaders, with some observers expressing concerns about the future for democratic freedoms in Tanzania, which has enjoyed multiparty democracy since it was reintroduced in 1992.

The late President Daniel Moi of Kenya permitted prominent opposition figures, inclu


ding Kenneth Matiba, Mwai Kibaki, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and Charity Ngilu, to participate in electoral contests against him. In contrast, President Samia Suluhu Hassan's administration has taken a different approach, with several key opposition figures, such as Tundu Lissu, John Heche, and Boniface Mwabukusi, being detained, thereby restricting their ability to engage in the political process.

The circumstances surrounding President Suluhu's swearing-in ceremony have raised questions about the nature of her electoral mandate. The decision to hold the ceremony in a military arena, rather than a civilian venue, is the clearest demonstration that the election was a sham and her victory was fraudulent since the process lacked transparency and accountability.

The precedent set by this approach may have broader implications for women's participation in national leadership, particularly in developing countries. The perceived lack of openness and inclusivity may undermine efforts to promote gender equality in politics and reinforce existing power dynamics in Africa.

Unfortunately, PLO Lumumba sounded like someone asking Madam Suluhu to extend a handshake to Tundu Lissu, the man who is facing treason charges. This is a man who witnessed what happened in 2007/2008 when post-election violence engulfed Kenya, after the late President Kibaki was sworn in for a second term in office at night. He witnessed the killings of Kenyans and the displacement of thousands. He saw how the nation was on the brink of collapse due to electoral malpractises.

Trying to minimise the gravity of the mess in Tanzania, where madam Suluhu has been sworn in, nothing can happen, is being politically pedestrian of PLO Lumumba. The lady should step down and allow a caretaker government to take up the reins of the country for a couple of months so that fresh elections can be held in the country. This is the surest way to nurture a democratic political culture, which should be radiated or inculcated in other countries reeling from election malpractices, such as Kenya.

How long shall Africans continue to normalise anomalies? In Swahili, we say imekuwa imekuwa (it has happened, we've to live with it). PLO understands the pain of presidential electoral fraud more than anyone else! He should be the last person to appeal for dialogue by the beleaguered Tanzanian President. In fact, PLO sounded openly encouraging handshake politics in Tanzania, which has diluted our Kenyan politics and completely disoriented multiparty politics in the country.

It must be understood that President Suluhu is not the late President Magufuli, who was PLO’s friend. It's also understandable that PLO has an affinity with Tanzania, especially the founding President Julius Nyerere and, more recently, John Pombe Magufuli, President Suluhu's predecessor. As a renowned Pan-Africanist, PLO's views on African politics and governance are highly respected, and his advocacy for African self-determination and good governance has been consistent throughout his career.

PLO Lumumba's perspective on Tanzanian politics is likely informed by his historical connections with the country, particularly his admiration for the late leaders Julius Nyerere and John Pombe Magufuli. It is pertinent to recognize that President Suluhu represents a distinct political entity, necessitating a nuanced approach to understanding her administration's policies and actions. Lumumba's commentary may be influenced by his familiarity with Tanzania's political landscape and his relationships with key figures in the nation's history, but this one should not dent his viewpoint vis-à-vis what bedevils the growth and development of democracy in Africa.

PLO Lumumba's critique of Western NGOs, such as the Ford Foundation, Republican Institute, Carter Center, and Open Society, raises concerns regarding the potential undermining of civil society organisations. These entities play a crucial role in promoting good governance and democratic development in emerging democracies like Tanzania and Kenya.

The civil society, popularly known as the fourth sector, has been instrumental in Kenya's struggle for political pluralism and continues to contribute significantly to the country's democratic space and governance. It is pertinent to consider whether avenues have been explored to secure funding for civil society organisations from the exchequer, akin to the support provided to political parties. Prominent civil society groups, including the Centre for Multiparty Democracy (CMD), Law Society of Kenya (LSK), International Commission of Jurists (ICJ), and others, have made notable contributions to sensitisation, legal representation, and advocacy for justice.

I challenge PLO Lumumba to guide us on how prominent civil society organizations in Kenya can raise funds to execute their mandate without relying, for instance, on Open Society and the Ford Foundation if he objects to foreign funding.  

Lumumba's own engagement with international platforms raises questions about the dissemination of his ideas. He is invited to lectures in the global scene and compensated for his contributions, yet it is unclear how his thoughts have shaped Kenya's national discourse. His appearances on YouTube and other digital platforms may have limited reach, primarily benefiting those with access to mobile technology and data.

To effectively propagate his ideas, Lumumba could establish a more inclusive retail platform, engaging with diverse audiences, including idle youth in public spaces like Jacaranda or Jevanjee gardens. This is what ancient Greek philosophers like Socrates and Plato did during the 4th and 5th centuries.  

The laudable efforts of international pressure groups, such as the Open Society and Ford Foundation, warrant acknowledgement. Their contributions to Kenya's political development have been instrumental, as attested by notable beneficiaries including Dr Willy Mutunga, Boniface Mwangi, Susan Kariuki, Paddy Onyango, Keny Njiru, and Kepta Ombati, founder of the Youth Agenda, which received funding from external NGOs.

As a direct beneficiary of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, I can vouch for the foundation's impactful work in fostering young Kenyan leaders through annual intensive leadership training programs. In 2007, this German foundation, in partnership with the Youth Agenda, provided me with invaluable training in political leadership, a feat unmatched by any Kenyan politician or institution. Such initiatives underscore the significance of international cooperation in promoting leadership development and democratic governance.

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

ODM Party at crossroads: Odinga's Exit May Reshape Kenya's Political Landscape

By Joseph Lister Nyaringo

The passing of Raila Amolo Odinga has carved a profound chasm in Kenya's political topography. In the aftermath, we can expect seismic tremors to reverberate through the political landscape, precipitating a paradigm shift that will recalibrate the contours of the current administration, redefine multiparty politics, and reshape the trajectory of the 2027 presidential election.

The late party leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was the linchpin that had held the two-decade-old party together. Even before the week-long national mourning period decreed by President William Ruto has elapsed, it is glaringly clear that Odinga's departure has unleashed a maelstrom of political uncertainty, rendering new realignments within the party an inevitability.

A potential merger between ODM and President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) appears imminent, judging by the pronouncements from proponents of the broad-based government during Odinga's burial on Sunday. This development may even prompt the adoption of a new name that encompasses both ODM and UDA, a precedent that has been witnessed previously in Kenya's history of mergers and political coalition-building.

If this happens, it could completely neuter ODM’s identity in the country as a distinct opposition voice. President Ruto has already expressed his desire to keep ODM in the ruling coalition, hinting at a possible political alliance ahead of the 2027 elections.

The recent development precipitated by the demise of ODM party leader Raila Odinga may galvanize certain ODM officials to defect from the party or challenge the proposed merger in court. Dissenting voices within ODM, including Governor James Orengo, Senators Edwin Sifuna and Geoffrey Osotsi, and MPs Caleb Amisi, Babu Owino, and Milly Odhiambo, may ultimately contest the merger through litigation, thereby potentially altering the party's trajectory.

Moreover, detractors of the broad-based government and the prospective merger of ODM and UDA led my Edwin Sifuna will likely attempt to persuade fellow party members to either abandon ship or urge the pro-government team led by Oburu Odinga to defect from ODM.

The ODM saga is merely unfolding, with all eyes fixed on key figures including Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga (interim party leader), Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Opiyo Wandayi, Wycliffe Oparanya, governors Simba Arati, Abdullswamad Sheriff Nassir, Gladys Wanga, and MPs Peter Kaluma and Junet Mohamed, to defect from the party and join President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Another possible scenario is this, if the court or registrar of political parties approves a merger, it could result in Edwin Sifuna's group quitting ODM to form a new party or join the Wiper Democratic Front, led by Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, who appears to be President Ruto's main challenger for the 2027 presidential election.

Broadly speaking, we are likely to witness a replay of the political theatre of the early 1990s, wherein the Forum for Restoration of Democracy (FORD) splintered into two factions: Ford Kenya, led by Raila's father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and Ford Asili, led by Kenneth Matiba.

Odinga's departure will undoubtedly trigger substantial political upheaval in Kenya's landscape. Divisions are already emerging in the Luo Nyanza region, where the community lacks a unifying figure following his passing. The interim party leader, Oburu Odinga, may find it challenging to unite the region, not to mention the Orange Democratic Movement party, given the absence of Raila's powerful leadership.

On the other hand, Senator Oburu appears to lack the charisma and diplomatic finesse necessary to broker a rapprochement between the party's antagonists and proponents. As a straight shooter, Oburu's public pronouncements since the formation of the broad-based government have reflected a sense of inevitability, suggesting that ODM is firmly entrenched within the Ruto administration and will likely endorse his bid for a second term in 2027. This stance starkly contrasts with that of ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who has expressed open defiance towards the broad-based government, despite his late leader's erstwhile support for it.

The Finance Cabinet secretary John Mbadi who is perhaps the highest beneficiary from the ODM party by virtue of the plum docket he holds in the Ruto government does not have the glue that can hold the party together. He is emotional, combative and a maverick in the ODM party.

The Kisumu Women Representative, Ruth Odinga, who is also the younger sister of Raila Odinga, appeared to espouse a unifying spirit aimed at bolstering the party's negotiating leverage with other key stakeholders in the country during Odinga's funeral on Sunday. She seemed to suggest that ODM will pursue a pre-election pact wherein it will nominate its preferred candidate as President Ruto's running mate in 2027.

Suppose this scenario materializes under the current political landscape. In that case, it may potentially sideline Prof. Kithure Kindiki, the incumbent Deputy President, from the running mate slot in 2027, given that he currently occupies the same position, thereby rendering him ineligible or less competitive for the spot.

However, suppose Ruto's parliamentary majority successfully navigates the passage of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report of November 2023. In that case, it will likely precipitate a power-sharing arrangement that may co-opt dissenting voices by incorporating prominent politicians from Kenya's larger ethnic communities, such as the Kikuyu and Luhya.

One wonders why internecine squabbles within ODM have erupted prematurely, even before the week-long national mourning period announced by the Ruto government has elapsed, following the passing of one of Africa's most prominent political figures.

Would it not be prudent for ODM leaders to pause for reflection and introspection, and conduct some soul-searching, instead of throwing words carelessly about the party, even before the seven days mourning for Odinga, set by the current government elapsed?

Following the revelations at Odinga's funeral on Sunday, internal power struggles within the ODM party appear imminent. This is particularly evident between those loyal to the Odinga family and others seeking a new direction, notably Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who also serves as the party's Secretary-General.

The pro-Odinga family faction of ODM, which seemingly favours maintaining the status quo, including remaining within the broad-based government and ultimately supporting President Ruto's re-election bid in 2027, comprises Governor Wanga, Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi, among others. Conversely, the anti-Ruto faction is led by Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino, alongside several others who have yet to declare their stance now that Odinga has departed the political scene.

The current impasse within the ODM party underscores the imperative of succession planning for influential leaders. As the biblical adage goes, "Let a man commend himself in a small matter, and he shall be entrusted with greater" (Luke 16:10). In ancient Israel, monarchs like David wisely groomed their successors, thereby ensuring continuity and stability.

Conversely, Raila Odinga's failure to clearly delineate a succession plan for his political legacy has precipitated uncertainty within the ODM party. This episode serves as a reminder for leaders to establish robust mechanisms that safeguard their legacy and ensure the continuation of their work, rather than leaving their organisations vulnerable to debilitating power struggles and instability.

As ODM navigates a new era in the absence of Odinga's leadership, several pivotal factors will determine its future trajectory, including party loyalty and members' adherence to the party's core ideals, which will be crucial in ascertaining whether they remain committed to the party or defect to rival political formations. Ultimately, the party's future actions will profoundly impact Kenya's governance landscape, particularly in the run-up to the 2027 elections.



 

Friday, August 15, 2025

Who Bears Responsibility? Gaza tales and the Pursuit of Peace

Who Bears Responsibility? Gaza tales and the Pursuit of Peace

By Joseph Lister Nyaringo

Our world is in dire need of peace amidst the backdrop of chaos and turmoil in the 21st century. Despite the establishment of the United Nations to foster international cooperation and prevent conflicts following the failure of the League of Nations, global peace remains elusive. Tragically, careless wars lead to loss of human life, undermining societal progress. Conversely, peace is foundational for progress, nurturing social stability, human rights, and economic development.

In a poignant address to the United Nations General Assembly last year, Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados emphasized the urgent need for a "reboot" for global peace and security. Mottley highlighted that pursuing revenge instead of fostering peace escalates horror for humanity, quoting "vengeance is for the Lord" to underscore the perils of retaliatory cycles. Her sentiment aligns with the UN Charter's founding vision to promote peace and security among member states. Mottley spoke at an opportune time in a fitting forum, given the UN's focus on global peace and security.

The Israel war in the Gaza Strip and Russia's invasion of Ukraine stand as two of the most pressing global crises, exacting a devastating toll on the people of Ukraine and Palestine. The enduring trauma inflicted upon civilians in these regions is catastrophic, with children, teenagers, and adults alike in Gaza bearing the indelible scars of harrowing experiences for the remainder of their lives. The unfathomable anguish of witnessing loved ones killed in broad daylight defies description.

Global opinions on the Israel-Gaza conflict are divergent, with many questioning Israel's ability to maintain its status as an economic powerhouse in the challenging Middle East geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has drawn widespread international condemnation.

It remains to be seen how US President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladmir Putin this week in Alaska, will play out in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's government in Gaza has sparked vehement international condemnation. In the Arab world, a staggering 82% population view the US response to Israel's war in Gaza as "very bad".

Professor Fawaz Gerges, of the London School of Economics has scathingly criticized Arab rulers for their passivity amid Gaza's devastation, where children are dying of starvation as Israel’s bombardment continues.

Arab countries friendly to the US, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, have been criticized for their low-key and largely symbolic responses to the Gaza crisis. These governments have issued statements, held summits, and called for ceasefires but have been largely ineffective in stopping Israel's actions.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are a notable exception, actively engaging against Israel in Gaza by firing missiles and drones at Israeli ships. Arab governments' restraint is attributed to their dependence on US support and fear of domestic turbulence if they take a stronger stance against Israel, which is a traditional US ally in the Middle East.

The Gaza crisis, marked by starvation and civilian casualties not affiliated with Hamas, has drawn widespread international condemnation, including from traditional US allies. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's indictment by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity has sparked significant international attention and controversy. Post-tenure, Netanyahu's position is anticipated to be precarious, potentially facing restrictions on international travel.

Several nations have taken pivotal steps regarding Palestine's status. Canada and Australia, key members of the common wealth plan to recognize the State of Palestine in September. In Europe, countries like Ireland, Norway, Spain, Slovenia, and potentially France, the United Kingdom, and Portugal have announced to recognize Palestine as a state. Israel vehemently opposes these recognitions.

There's vehement outrage among Israelis at home and abroad regarding the Gaza situation. Some dissenters criticize Prime Minister Netanyahu's approach as excessive, particularly concerning humanitarian aid and civilian suffering amidst the aftermath of the October 7th tragedy. In the midst of active war, no party emerges unscathed. Israel has suffered losses, with hundreds of soldiers experiencing debilitating post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), leading to tragic cases of suicide.

Meanwhile, President Trump seemingly aligns with Netanyahu's approach to the crisis in Gaza. Under his presidency, Israel's actions in the Middle East have escalated exponentially, as evident in assaults on Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.

It is noteworthy that the Gaza war commenced during Joe Biden's presidency. Conversely, during the presidential campaigns, president Trump while as a candidate vociferously argued against the war, asserting that had he been president, the war would have been averted ab initio. Trump further posited that President Putin of Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine. Unfortunately, he is doing the opposite.

The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine allegedly impacted Kamala Harris's presidential bid. Many Americans thought Trump would swiftly resolve these conflicts if elected, but the opposite seems to be happening.

The Gaza crisis, marked by starvation and civilian casualties not affiliated with Hamas, has drawn widespread international condemnation while the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk stated that Israel's plan is "contrary to the ruling of the International Court of Justice" and violates Palestinian rights to self-determination.

Besides, the indictment of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity has led to significant international attention and controversy. Netanyahu's position is anticipated to be precarious post-tenure, with potential restrictions on international travel due to the indictment.

South Africa has taken a bold step by lodging a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), focusing on Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories. This move has gained significant support from African countries like Djibouti, Comoros, and Algeria. Additionally, countries in South America and the Caribbean, including Brazil, Chile, Cuba, and Colombia, have expressed solidarity with South Africa's legal pursuit against Israel's actions under Prime Minister Netanyahu's government.

There's a notable parallel between Iran's relationship with Palestinians and the US's relationship with Israel in terms of influence. In the US, criticizing Israel is often considered politically risky due to powerful lobbying groups like AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee). Dissent on Israel policy can quickly be labeled as antisemitic, limiting scrutiny of Israel. Conversely, Iran supports Palestinian groups like Hamas and PIJ, providing aid, weapons, and training to build a coalition against Israel.

Zohran Mamdani, a Muslim candidate for NYC mayor, has sparked controversy due to his strong views on Israel's handling of the Gaza crisis. Specifically, Mamdani's statement about potentially pressing for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits NYC drew criticism from Israel and some Jewish Americans, with accusations of antisemitism. Despite this, Mamdani has support from progressive Jewish groups like Jews for Racial & Economic Justice. Mamdani's campaign focuses on affordability in NYC and his stance on Palestinian rights.

US evangelicals have a strong and unique affinity for Israel based on their religious beliefs. Key figures like John Hagee, Franklin Graham, Mike Huckabee (US ambassador to Israel), and Robert Stearns are outspoken in their support for Israel. They believe Israel's existence is part of God's plan tied to biblical prophecies about Jesus' Second Coming. This support is driven by their interpretation of biblical narratives about God's covenant with Abraham and the Jewish people.

About 84% of evangelicals see Jews as God's chosen people, and 90.6% believe God promised Israel to them. 64% of white Protestant evangelicals back Israel's military actions in Gaza vs 32% of the overall US population. The original statement notes that only God judges whether these religious leaders' views are right or wrong, highlighting the role of divine ordinance in shaping evangelical views on Israel.


 

 

 

 

President Samia Suluhu Conundrum: PLO Lumumba gets his facts wrong

  President Samia Suluhu Conundrum: PLO Lumumba gets his facts wrong By Joseph Lister Nyaringo The podcast conducted by Dr Patrick Lumumba o...